Monday, September 24, 2007

Normal Year?


A couple of weeks ago a Thai lady said to me "The heat hasn't been bad this year, a couple of weeks in March or April, then the rains cooled things down and it hasn't been bad since."

This lady happened to be an experienced architect, and my sense of the year agreed with her comment, but as a "quant" I felt compelled to look at the data, so I loaded Don Muang daily highs (temp and dew point) and superimposed on the hottest year I've found, which happens to be 1983. To my surprise this suggested that 1983 wasn't really so bad after all, except that the hot season got a little prolonged (so it just kept getting hotter) and then finally broke with the rain which (if I am right in my thinking) came a little late. I also believe that 1983 was a bad flood year, so now I wonder wheher al these things are tied together.

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